As incentive for engaging in physical activity,
outcome expectancy represents a central construct of social cognitive theories that
have been extensively utilized in physical activity promotion (Williams et al.,
2005). In most existing studies, outcome expectancy has been measured using the
multiplicative combination of outcome likelihood (probability that a certain action will lead to a
certain outcome) and outcome values (values the individual assigns to the possible outcomes). However, the reliability of this calculation method
has been questioned because the amount of variance accounted for in outcome
expectancy by the multiplicative composite score may vary depending on the
numerical scale used to measure outcome likelihood or outcome values (Gagne
& Godin, 2000). To our knowledge, few studies have been conducted to investigate
the temporal stability of outcome
likelihood, outcome values, and outcome
expectancy in physical education settings using longitudinal research designs. Therefore,
the purpose of this study was to examine the temporal stability of these
variables in middle-school physical education over the course of one year. The participants
were 101 sixth graders and 99 seventh
graders (109 boys, 91 girls) in a southeastern state. Self-report scales were
used to assess outcome likelihood and outcome values in physical education (Goudas
& Dermtizaki, 2004) over a three-semester period that started in spring
2006. Outcome expectancy scores were generated through the cross-products of
outcome likelihood and outcome values. The internal reliabilities of these
variables were calculated using Cronbach's alpha coefficients over the three
semesters. The respective reliability coefficients were as follows: .90, .93,
and .91 for outcome likelihood; .93, .95, and .94 for outcome values; and .92,
.96, and .95 for outcome expectancy. The findings indicated acceptable and consistent reliability
coefficients of outcome likelihood, outcome
values, and outcome expectancy over time.
Therefore, these scales can accurately capture students' motivation toward
active participation in physical education. Second, the results revealed an increase of the reliability
coefficients over one school year. This
finding may reflect that as students
mature they become increasingly aware of the benefits of physical activity, and
they can accurately report their perceptions concerning the potential outcomes and values of
physical education. These findings also
suggest using the cross-products of outcome likelihood and outcome value to
measure outcome expectancy is sound. Future health promotion researchers would
need to longitudinally measure outcome expectancy and physical activity changes
to capture the temporal changes in physical activity motivation and behavior.