Development of a VO2Peak Prediction Model from One-Mile Run/Walk Performance

Background/Purpose: FITNESSGRAM currently employs a generalized regression model to predict VO_2Peak from One-mile Run/Walk (1MRW) performance to assess cardiorespiratory endurance. The 1MRW prediction equation includes body mass index (BMI) and therefore requires that users collect height and weight information. This can present additional challenges for teachers. The development of a new algorithm that doesn’t require BMI may increase the utility of the test. The purpose of this study was to develop an alternative aerobic capacity prediction model from 1MRW performance in adolescent youth aged 13 to 16 years. A secondary aim was to determine the criterion-referenced (CR) validity of the model using FITNESSGRAM’s aerobic capacity Healthy Fitness Zone classification scheme. Method: Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 86 adolescents (34 Girls, 52 Boys; Mean age = 14.7 ± 1.3 years) on two separate testing days. The 1MRW was administered on an outside standard track. A laboratory VO_2Peak test was conducted using a maximal, gender-specific, and graded exercise treadmill protocol. BMI and percent body fat (%BF) via two-site skinfolds were assessed. Analysis/Results: Multiple regression analysis using the hierarchical (block-wise entry) method was employed to develop the model. CR validity was assessed using modified kappa (Κq), proportion of agreement (Pa), and a phi (ϕ) coefficient. The final model yielded significant predictors for 1MRW time (β = -12.632 min, p < .001), 1MRW² (β = .551 min², p < .001), and an age x gender interaction term (β = .212, p = .021). Neither BMI nor %BF was a significant predictor of measured VO_2Peak. The final model was VO_2Peak = 107.589 – (12.632 × 1MRW time) + (.551 × 1MRW time²) + (0.212 × Age × Gender) (R = .82, SEE = 3.9 ml^.kg^-1.min^-1). CR validity analysis yielded moderate classification agreement between the new model and measured VO_2Peak into a three Healthy Fitness Zone scheme (Κq = 0.48, p < .001; Pa = 0.74; ϕ = 0.62).  Conclusions: The newly developed aerobic capacity prediction model without a BMI term displayed good prediction accuracy and moderate agreement into Healthy Fitness Zones with measured VO_2Peak. Despite these encouraging findings, the new model must be externally cross-validated to ensure its generalizability to larger populations of school-aged children. The results suggest that an aerobic capacity prediction model without the use of a body composition term can provide an accurate assessment of cardiorespiratory endurance in adolescents.