Scheduled for The Consortium of Research in HPERD and Social, Wednesday, April 10, 2002, 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM, San Diego Convention Center: Exhibit Hall


Measurement Technique for the Recalculation of Population Longevity Data Relative to Changes in Mortality

Alex Waigandt, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

The purpose of this analysis is to measure population longevity data relative to changes or potential changes in mortality due to efforts in Health Promotion and Physical Education. Mortality data by age group and gender, derived from U.S. Vital Statistics - Part II, and data from the U.S. Census are used to calculate life tables. Cause-deleted data are generated by analyzing probability of survival within the life table and a revised probability of survival is calculated, based on the elimination of mortality casuation in light of competing risks. The formula : nPx(-j)=1.00 - (nDx - nDx(i) / nNx . CW) accomplishes this. Recalculation of the probability of survival produces revised life expectancy data. For the purpose of example, cigarette smoking is the behavior scrutinized and associated risks of cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasm and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality are used to conduct the analysis. Significant differences between gender exist in every age group with death among males occurring at a higher rate than among females. Calculations based on U.S. Public Health data and deletion of mortality causation due to cigarette smoking projected increases in population life expectancy of approximately 2 years for males and 1.6 years for females. These findings projected a life expectancy net increase of 72.4 million person years per decade which could result from the cessation of cigarette smoking within the American population.
Keyword(s): disease prevention, health promotion, research

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