The Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) is a commonly used aerobic fitness test for youth around the world. The purpose of this study was to utilize regression analysis to develop individualized PACER goals for South African youth. These individualized goals can then be used by the child and/or teacher for goal-setting or formative assessment.
Method
Fitness data were recorded on 1071 South African youth ages 10 - 13. All participants had their age, height, weight, BMI, and gender recorded, completed the 20-m PACER shuttle run, and their % body fat was estimated from the sum of two skinfolds (triceps, calf). Participants were randomly divided into a validation group and cross-validation group.
Analysis/Results
Physical characteristics of the validation group (n=726) were (mean±SD): ht(cm)= 149.2±9.8; body mass(kg)= 43.2±11.1; body fat (%) = 23.4±7.7; BMI (kg/m2)= 19.2±3.4; PACER laps = 20.1±13.5. Physical characteristics of the cross-validation group (n=345) were (mean±SD): ht(cm)= 149.5±9.7; body mass(kg)= 43.7±10.6; body fat (%) = 23.2±7.5; BMI (kg/m2)= 19.4±3.2; PACER laps = 21.0±14.1. A multiple regression model was derived from the validation sample to estimate PACER laps completed from % body fat, age, and gender. The Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) for PACER laps was determined on the cross validation sample from the following equation: SEE = √[SSresidual/(n-k-1)]. Homogeneity of regression slope and intercept revealed the following derived model: PACER laps completed= -3.203 + (% fat*-0.6451) + (age*3.203) + (Gender (0=females and 1=males)*3.365), p <.001 could be used to estimate PACER laps completed for South African boys and girls. The derived model was then cross-validated to determine its' accuracy (SEE = 12.1 laps, R = .491).
Conclusions
This model permits participants to estimate typical PACER performance for someone their age, gender, and percent fat. Thus, they can have their own PACER performance goal. This individualized goal can provide formative steps for moving toward the FITNESSGRAM® Healthy Fitness Zone. In conclusion, the derived model accurately estimated PACER laps for South African youth and can be used for setting individualized aerobic fitness goals based on gender, age, and percent fat. Future studies should be designed to evaluate the generalizability of the model to youth from other cultures.