Scheduled for Sport Management, Psychology, and Leisure & Recreation Posters, Thursday, April 1, 2004, 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM, Convention Center: Exhibit Hall Poster Session


Impacts of Televising and Trading on the Korean Baseball League: Multiple Interrupted Time Series (MITS), 1991-2001

Sangho Kim, Mississippi State University, Tallahassee, FL, Euidong Yoo, Korea Sports Science Institute, Seoul, South Korea and E. Newton Jackson, Florida A&M University, Tallahassee, FL

The Korean Professional Baseball (KPB) as a market has shown a downward trend since 1996; there are two possible explanations: The televising Chan-Ho Park’s games in Korea and the trading of valuable players resulting from the 1997 East Asia economic crisis. The purpose of this study is to assess the impacts of these two occasions on the Korean professional baseball market. The Multiple Interrupted Time Series (MITS) is applied to analyze monthly data of average attendance, from April 1991 to September 2001. Yt = b0 + b1X1t + b2X2t + b3X3t + b4X4t + b5X5t + et where Yt = monthly observations on the number of attendants in professional baseball games from April, 1991 to September, 2001; X1t = a counter for months from 1 to N, the number of observations; X2t = a dichotomous variable scored 0 for observations before televising Park’s games, and 1 for April ,1996 and after; X3t = a counter of months scored 0 for observations before the intervention and 1, 2, 3,… for observations after the intervention; X4t = a dichotomous variable scored 0 for observations before the trading of valuable players, and 1 for April, 1998 and thereafter; X5t = a counter of months scored 0 for observations before trading and 1, 2, 3,… for April, 1998 and thereafter; b0 (level), b1 (slope), b2 and b4 (short-term effect), b3 and b5 (long-term) = parameters to be estimated; and et = error. The following result estimating that model with ordinary least squares (OLS) provides: At = 7067.529(9.432) + .700(2.224)X1t + .215(.776)X2t – 2.337(-2.886)X3t +.050(-.191)X4t +1.047(2.059)X5t +et R2 = .665 N = 66 Durbin-Watson (D-W) = 1.970 where the values in parentheses next to the parameter estimates = the t-ratios; R2 = the coefficient of multiple determination; N = the number of observations (April, 1991 ~ September, 2001); D-W = the Durbin-Watson statistic. In order to yield desirable estimators in ordinary least squares (OLS), the error terms should be uncorrelated, E(eiej) = 0, i is not equal to j. In the equation (3), D-W = 1.970, which indicates the error terms, are not autocorrelated. Based on the results, some implications have been suggested: the need of tempting promotional strategies for the KPB, the demand of new policy guiding the trading of amateur players, and the possibility that the global market penetration of the MLB can result in unbalanced global markets.
Keyword(s): international issues, research, sport management

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